Is Iowa now 'The First State in the Nation' to upturn assumptions about Trump support?
Does today's DMR poll results identify Trump weaknesses in rural and small town America on issues of abortion and private vouchers?
The latest Iowa Poll, a widely respected source conducted by the Des Moines Register and Selzer & Co., indicates a notable shift, showing Vice President Kamala Harris with a slight lead over Donald Trump. This is surprising given Iowa’s strong Republican trend in recent cycles, especially following Trump’s double-digit wins in 2016 and 2020 and the GOP's success in 2022, which included securing all federal seats and ousting long-standing Democrats like AG Tom Miller.
However, today's Iowa isn’t monolithic. It’s worth remembering that Iowa was once competitive, voting twice for Barack Obama and electing Democratic Senator Tom Harkin, along with 12 years under Democratic governor Tom Vilsack and Chet Culver from 1998 to 2010. Today, the discontent with the Republican-led state government, especially over recent restrictive abortion laws and the private voucher system, may be influencing voter sentiment, especially among women and younger voters.
Selzer highlights that Harris’s traction in Iowa likely stems from possible resonance with these demographic groups, potentially making Iowa a competitive state once again. This shift suggests that despite the state’s GOP strength, key social issues and leadership decisions are contributing to an evolving political atmosphere in Iowa.
If Ann Selzer’s poll accurately predicts the outcome of the November 5 vote, several additional observations come to mind, drawing from insights I gained during recent Zoom sessions with Selzer herself. Previously, I had attributed Iowa polling trends primarily to dissatisfaction with Republican policies on abortion, private school vouchers, and inaction on eminent domain protections related to carbon pipelines. However, there’s a fourth factor likely contributing to the apparent discontent among older Iowans with Trump: the persistent issues with Iowa's nursing homes. The Iowa Capital Dispatch has been consistently reporting on serious mismanagement—and, in some cases, possible malfeasance—in certain facilities, while Iowa commentators critique the lack of government oversight.
This election marks the first time Iowans can express their reaction to several major policy shifts: the state’s responses to the Dobbs decision, the dramatic expansion of private school vouchers since 2023, the absence of eminent domain protections for landowners, and the inadequate regulatory attention to Iowa’s nursing homes. Altogether, this vote offers Iowans a chance to signal their objections to these issues and voice their opinion on the Republican-led state government’s response.
This could play out the same in other states with Republican led states.
Thank you, IowaCaptive. I know my Republican friends are feeling very confident, but in the all-important “field sign competition,” Harris/Walz appears to be doing well. Across rural Iowa and residential neighborhoods, their signs are noticeably more prominent. Just yesterday, while volunteering at a certain political party’s headquarters, I was struck by the number of people from Ames and rural Story County who came in to request signs, replace ones that had been taken down, or simply show their support. As IowaCaptive reports, Iowa’s landscape is already telling a story.